Abstract
Political sensitivity bias refers to the deviation of observed poll results from the genuine public opinion due to perceived government pressure on respondents. This bias can mislead analysts and politicians into making inaccurate assessments of political climates. Hong Kong, having experienced a rapid reduction in political freedoms under the Hong Kong National Security Law (HKNSL), provides a unique case for studying political sensitivity bias where the impacts of other transitory factors can be isolated. We show alternative evidence of such bias in the city by using public opinion poll data and the newly invented Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) estimator to investigate the differential impact of the law on local opinion polls. Our results indicate a significant positive differential treatment effect on polls regarding attitudes towards Taiwan and Tibet independence compared with polls of lower political sensitivity. This implies that the Hong Kong National Security Law has contributed to the increased political sensitivity bias in these polls, thereby proving the existence of such bias.
The replication files for this paper are available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2CGPGO.
Citation
@article{yang2023,
author = {Yang, Dianyi and Huang, Leike},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
title = {The {Differential} {Impact} of the {Hong} {Kong} {National}
{Security} {Law} on {Political} {Sensitivity} {Bias} in {Local}
{Opinion} {Polls}},
journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
number = {4499460},
date = {2023-07-04},
url = {https://rubuky.com/papers/2023-07-04-HKNSL/},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4499460},
issn = {1556-5068},
langid = {en}
}